HINDU KUSH & WEST HIMALAYAS

Discussion

From the revised Figures 1-2 it appears that there is about to be a recurrence of the M 7.5 Hindu Kush earthquake mainshock of 2015. This event is likely to occur around Full Moon on Oct 26, 2026, based on data to this point in time (Figure 2), as modelling will not be updated again (if needed) until mid Oct 2026.

Previously this earthquake was thought likely by early Sep 2026, but the revised modelling here yields stronger agreement between ‘best fits’ of the Triangular Module to both monthly and yearly data sets. Also previously Figure 1 was presented with all events plotted as the fraction of a year on which they fell, but this technique provided no additional advantages and has been discontinued.

According to the theory behind the Triangular Module, line GB (Figure 1) notionally represents descending values in the sequence and must subtend an angle of 60 degrees with line AG; then its intersection at B with baseline AB gives the expected year of a forthcoming mainshock, here being 2026.

The ascending values of the sequence are represented by line AC which in Figure 1 is placed to pass through a major M 6.9 ‘foreshock’ on its way to the projected and forecast mainshock of M 7.5 in 2026. Again, by theory, line AC must form a 30-degree angle with baseline AB, or its extension as in this case. Also, line EC must form a 60-degree angle with AB. Then triangulation of AC, EC, and BC at C confirms M 7.5 as the expected magnitude. There must also be simultaneous triangulation at cross-over point D where AC, GB, and DX intersect, the latter bisecting line BC.

These same principles apply to Figure 2 where the largest earthquakes are plotted on day of their occurrence between New Moons (NM-NM) within a 350-km radius of the Hindu Kush earthquake of 2015. This technique also provides the assessment that the next mainshock is likely to be a M 7.5 event and it gives the approximate date of Oct 22, 2026, at around Full Moon.