Earthquake Forecasts
New ecological modelling points to the strong likelihood of these select mainshocks
-
-
-
An M 6.3-6.5 earthquake is now expected by around May 24, 2026.
Two new graphs in support of this revision are now at the bottom of the Djibouti and Afar Triangle page.
-
A M 6 quake in Southern CA (LA-Ludlow-San Diego-Baja region) now expected last half of May, followed by a likely M 7.2, possibly around June 26.
-
possibly within 250km of Istanbul, about May 2026.
-
about June 2026.
-
about Sept-Oct, 2026.
-
about Sept-Oct, 2026.
-
likely Oct-Nov, 2026.
-
possibly December, 2026. More Cascadia info on this page.
Expected at the southern end of the Cascadia Subduction Zone between mid Oregon and Cape Mendocino, Northern California, or at the northern end of the San Andreas Fault system.
-
likely early Jan, 2027.
-
Likely March, 2027.
-
Now not expected until end of April, 2027.
-
2027.
-
2028.
-
2030.
NOTE: Our most recent successful prospective forecast was for the M_7.0 Cape Mendocino event on Dec 5, 2024, whose magnitude and date were forecast exactly and advised ahead by email to several people, including a seismologist in CA. It was also noted correctly, that the event would most likely occur within 150_km of the Cape.
PLEASE ALSO NOTE:
NO ATTEMPT IS MADE TO FORECAST ALL IMPORTANT SEISMIC EVENTS. Nor does the author claim to know about all upcoming earthquakes.
Forecasts may change as the latest seismic events are incorporated into the models (see Disclaimer) and note all times are UTC.
Updated May 7, 2026