Earthquake Forecasts

New ecological modelling points to the strong likelihood of these select mainshocks

  • Late revision: the M6.5-6.6 earthquake for Djibouti or Gulf of Aden is due June 21-22

  • An M 7.1-7.3 quake is now expected around Aug 7 (UTC), 2026, in Southern CA (LA-Ludlow-San Diego-Baja region), according to a breakthrough in our mathematical modelling which is being tested. 

  • within 300 km of Istanbul on about Oct 2 (UTC), 2026

  • Now expected about Sept 22, 2026, according to the new Triangular Analytical Module which is being tested.

  • about Sept-Oct, 2026.

  • about Sept-Oct, 2026.

  • likely Oct-Nov, 2026.

  • possibly December, 2026. More Cascadia info on this page.

    Expected at the southern end of the Cascadia Subduction Zone between mid Oregon and Cape Mendocino, Northern California, or at the northern end of the San Andreas Fault system.

  • likely early Jan, 2027.

  • The original forecast for an M 8.2 in 2026 is withdrawn.
    The recent M7.5 on Mar 20 has moved the likelihood of this M 8.0 to 2027, possibly in March, according to our updated research (posted 10 a.m. 19 May, 2026 UTC.

  • Now expected 2027.

  • Likely March, 2027.

  • Now not expected until end of April, 2027.

  • 2027.

  • 2028.

NOTE:‍ ‍Our most recent successful prospective forecast was for the M 7.0 Cape Mendocino event on Dec 5, 2024, whose magnitude and date were forecast exactly and advised ahead by email to several people, including a seismologist in CA. It was also noted correctly, that the event would most likely occur within 150 km of the Cape.

PLEASE ALSO NOTE:

NO ATTEMPT IS MADE TO FORECAST ALL IMPORTANT SEISMIC EVENTS. Nor does the author claim to know about all upcoming earthquakes.
Forecasts may change as the latest seismic events are incorporated into the models (see Disclaimer) and note all times are UTC.

Updated June 21, 2026